🔗 1967 elections and aftermath 🔗 Print - Local politics grown since 1965 🔗 Ideas for India - Voter behaviour in Synchronised Election

First mid term polls

The first four Lok Sabha elections and state assembly elections were held simultaneously in 1952, 1957, 1962 and 1967.
The death of first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in office and the 1965 War with Pakistan, followed by the second Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri’s death in Tashkent under mysterious circumstances added new dimensions to Indian politics, heralding the advent of the era of Indira Gandhi.
The split in the Congress party, dissolution of some state assemblies and the announcement of mid-term polls for the Lok Sabha in 1971 (14 months before it was due in March 1972) marked the beginning of a new process of de-linking assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

Budget for election

Every general election is costing the exchequer roughly Rs 500 crore, which is basically the taxpayers’ hard-earned money.

According to estimates, election expenditure at the moment costs the Election Commission over Rs 4,000 crore

the expenditure on the 2024 general election was reportedly Rs 1.35 trillion, the most expensive election ever

One factor that accounts for a large portion of the election budget is the electoral staff, which is drawn from the pool of government employees, bankers, and teachers in government institutes.
Frequent elections mean enrolment of this workforce multiple times, thereby increasing the cost through additional wages and compensation, as well as infringing into their duty time and disrupting their regular duties.
A single election spanning over, say, a month or so, will reduce salary payouts and also avoid frequent disruptions in their normal duty schedule. Print

Whether holding national and state elections simultaneously affects voter decisions, and consequently, electoral outcomes in India?

finds that synchronised elections increase the likelihood of the same political party winning constituencies in both tiers by 21%.

Analysing national (or general) and state elections in India during 1977-2018, and exploit natural variation in electoral cycles to estimate the effect of synchronisation

Synchronised or not:

synchronised, if they were held on the same date;
the rest are classified as non-synchronised
Image: Probability of same party winning parliamentary and state assembly constituency, in non-synchronised vs synchronised elections

Advantages for national parties:

synchronisation increases the probability that the same political party wins a seat in the Parliament and the state assembly by 8.9 percentage points, which is about 21% of the base probability of 0.424

Advantages for state parties

when elections are non-synchronised, voters are more likely to vote for different parties across elections, possibly leading to different parties winning the two tiers

Voter turnout

The turnout in national elections does increase by 5% due to synchronisation.

Effect of synchronised elections on voter behaviour

First question asks about the most important consideration to the voter while voting. The options for the response were – ‘party’, ‘candidate’, ‘caste’, and ‘not sure’. 12% more likely to say ‘party’ after synchronised elections

Second question asked about the main issue during the election, 30% more likely to mention a state-related issue during synchronised elections relative to non-synchronised elections.

Panel report:

The committee includes

Ram Nath Kovind, former President - Chairman of the committee
Union Home Minister Amit Shah,
former Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Ghulam Nabi Azad,
Finance Commission chairperson N. K. Singh,
former Lok Sabha Secretary-General Subhash C. Kashyap,
senior advocate Harish Salve, and
former Chief Vigilance Commissioner Sanjay Kothari.

Appointed date

The President may issue a notification on the date of the first sitting of the Lok Sabha after a general election and bring into force the provision of this Article, and that date of the notification shall be called the Appointed date.

new Article 82A

To facilitate the simultaneous elections for state legislatures and parliament. This will end the terms of all state legislatures with that of Lok sabha.

new Article 324A

The panel has recommended several amendments to the Constitution, including introduction of Article 324A for enabling simultaneous elections in panchayats and municipalities within 100 days of the general elections and the state assemblies

Amendment to Article 83

It defines Unexpired term, Mid - term, General Elections

Unexpired term

When Lok sabha is dissolved before full term of 5 years, then the period between the date of dissolution and expire of full term.

Mid term election

The new Lok Sabha constituted, when the LS is dissolved pre maturely, elections taking place is known as mid term. This new LS is only for the unexpired term.

Amendment to Article 172

It defines the unexpired term and full term foor State Legislatures

Amendment to Article 327

Power of Parliament to make provisions with respect to elections to legislatures.

Amendment to Article 325

Amendment in Article 325 for enabling single electoral roll and single elector’s photo identity card, which shall be prepared by the Election Commission of India (ECI) in consultation with the State Election Commissions (SECs)

Amendment under Article 368(2)

Since many of these amendments touch upon State subjects (Entry 5) of Schedule VII, Part IX, and Part IX A of the Constitution, ratification by the States will be required under Article 368(2), the report says.

“However, implementing step one, which is simultaneous elections to House of the People and State Legislative Assemblies, does not necessitate ratification by the States.”

Implementation group

Recommended setting up of an implementation group to look into the execution of the recommendations of the one-nation, one-election panel.

Tenure of newly elected house in midterm

In the event of a hung House, no confidence motion, or any such event, fresh elections may be held to constitute the new House.

“Where fresh elections are held for the House of the People, the tenure of the House of the People will be only for the unexpired term of the immediately preceding full term of the House of the People and the expiration of this period shall operate as a dissolution of the House,” the report states.

Where fresh elections are held for the assemblies, then such new assemblies unless sooner dissolved, shall continue up to the end of the full term of the Lok Sabha.

Rejected German model

The high level committee rejected the German model of constructive vote of no-confidence help resolve political stalemates. Constructive vote of no confidence is that allows a parliament to withdraw confidence from a head of government only if there is a positive majority for a prospective successor. The principle is intended to ensure governments' stability by making sure that a replacement has enough parliamentary support to govern. Print

Amendments required

Would require at least five constitutional amendments and a large number of additional electronic voting machines (EVMs) and paper-trail machines.

The five amendments in the Constitution are as follows:

🔸Article 83 relating to the duration of Houses of Parliament 🔸 Article 85 relating to the dissolution of the Lok Sabha by the President 🔸 Article 172 relating to the duration of the State legislatures 🔸 Article 174 relates to the dissolution of the State legislatures. 🔸 Article 356 relates to the imposition of the President's Rule in States.

Merits

Reduction in the cost of conducting elections as each separate Election requires a huge amount of financial resources.
It would ease the burden on administrative and security forces, who otherwise are engaged multiple times in election duties.
With the implementation of 'One Nation, One Election,' the Government can focus more on governance rather than being in an election mode, which often hampers policy implementation.
According to the Law Commission, it will increase voter turnout because it will be easier for people to cast many ballots at once.
The 2013 Delhi and 2005 Bihar legislative Assembly elections resulted in hung Assemblies. Bill resolves such deadlocks by allowing fresh elections to take place. The only difference is that the newly elected legislature will serve a reduced tenure rather than the full five years.

Demerits

There is apprehension that regional issues might get overshadowed by national issues, affecting the electoral outcome at the state level. 2014 elections in Delhi, demonstrate that voters can and do make distinct choices. Despite the BJP’s overwhelming victory at the Centre, voters elected the AAP in the State Assembly, despite both polls being held within six months of each other.

Frequent elections give voters a chance to renegotiate their relationship with the government and get ruling dispensations to respond to public demands. They keep governments on their toes.

With Mid - term elections, the newly elected legislature will be shorter than five years, whether this improves governance is uncertain. However, it does not provide the same stability as the U.S. presidential system.

If Parliament completes its full term while a State Assembly is only in its second year, the Assembly would be prematurely dissolved, with elections held concurrently with Parliament. This approach undermines the principles of federalism. Under the existing constitutional framework, State Assemblies function as autonomous legislative bodies.

If a government falls after three and a half years, mid-term elections will be necessary, taking an additional 4-6 months. This would result in a Lok Sabha with a tenure of one year or less, which will not bear fruit for any government to implement social welfare or developmental schemes, for which the people elected the party.

Defections by elected representatives will trigger by-elections. Recent large-scale defections in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, where MLAs resigned or were disqualified, triggered by-elections.

Instances of influencing policy changes to allure voters in states that have election in near future

In 2024, Modi slashed fuel prices by Rs 2 weeks ahead of general elections and the price of cooking gas by Rs 100.
Years before 2024 when global prices moderated the price benefits were not passed on to consumers, but once elections were announced—down came the prices
new scheme for women, the Ladki Bahin Yojana, was announced in July 2024, providing financial help to women;
other schemes providing for gas cylinders and electricity bill waivers for farmers have been announced.
Frequent elections give voters a chance to renegotiate their relationship with the government and get ruling dispensations to respond to public demands. They keep governments on their toes.
Since the 1950s, there has been a huge efflorescence in the number of states, number of parties, political movements, political identities, issues, agitations and aspirations. New local parties and local elites have emerged

Union Cabinet gave its approval on bills on simultaneous polls - December, 2024

Cabinet approved two Bills related to the implementation of simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies, paving the way to introduce the draft legislation in Parliament in the ongoing Winter Session, 2024.

One Bill is to amend the Constitution to amend provisions in laws dealing with Union Territories that have Legislative Assemblies to align their terms with other Legislative Assemblies.

The Constitution amendment Bill to hold simultaneous polls will not require to be ratified by at least 50% of the States

Cabinet has decided not to get into the issue of synchronising local body polls as this would have require a Constitution amendment, to insert a new Article 324A, and also ratification by half the Assemblies.

The second Bill on simultaneous elections pertains to aligning the terms of the Legislative Assemblies of three Union Territories — Puducherry, Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir — with other Legislative Assemblies and the Lok Sabha

The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-Ninth Amendment) Bill, 2024, introduced in the Lok Sabha on December 17, 2024.

Global examples

The United Kingdom fixed term parliaments acts of 2011, was repealed in 2022. In this, a newly elected legislature would complete its full five year term, even if mid term elections were to be held.

Effects of heatwaves on elections

Prospective Election Cycle Change for next General Elections:

BJP lost 63 seats in the Lok Sabha General Elections (GE) of 2024 compared to 2019, with 36 of those losses occurring in constituencies where the margin was less than 3%. This accounts for a total of 626,311 votes that could have been pivotal in converting these losses into victories. This situation can largely be attributed to a low voter turnout in key states:

• Uttar Pradesh saw a decline of 2.29% from 2019, • Rajasthan experienced a 5% decrease, from 2019 • Maharashtra faced a 1% increase, • Haryana recorded a significant drop of 5.54% from 2019.

Factors contributing to this reduced engagement included an excessive heatwave affecting northern India, alongside voter fatigue and an overconfidence among BJP supporters.

Interestingly, the Haryana Assembly elections of 2024 demonstrated a different trend, with a higher turnout of 67.9%, which is an increase of 3.1% compared to the Lok Sabha elections. This uptick proved advantageous for the BJP, allowing them to edge past Congress by a narrow 1%, reversing the trend seen in the LS elections where Congress led by 1%. The cooler weather during the assembly elections likely played a role, alongside a sense of urgency among BJP voters who were concerned about missing the opportunity to secure a majority government for Modi at the center.

In light of these patterns, there is a trial underway to evaluate voter response during the September to November timeframe post delimitation and to carry out One Nation One Elections, coinciding with the onset of peak winter in North India. If voter turnout in this period proves significantly higher than during the April-May elections, the government may seriously consider adjusting the electoral cycle to favour these months. Such a move could enhance turnout and potentially benefit the BJP, especially during the festive season, which tends to influence voter sentiment positively.

Therefore, I urge Hindus to vote in large numbers in the upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections take it seriously without going out for vacations and increase the turnout when compared to LS elections so that the election cycle is changed once for all. This could be the turning point in the elections of Indian politics. DGP India

Committees that recommended Simultaneous elections

170th Report of Law commission of India, 1999
National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution, 200
Parliamentary Standing Committee Report, 2015
Working Paper of NITI Aayog, 2017

Members of JPC

Shri P.P Chaudhary
Dr. C.M Ramesh
Ms. Bansuri Swaraj
Shri Parshottambhai Rupala
Shri Anurag Singh Thakur
Shri Vishnu Dayal Ram
Shri Bhartruhari Mahtab
Dr. Sambit Patra
Shri Anil Baluni
Shri Vishnu Datt Sharma
Smt. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra
Shri Manish Tewari
Shri Sukhdeo Bhagat
Shri Dharmendra Yadav
Shri Kalyan Banerjee
Shri T.M.Selvaganapathi
Shri G M Harish Balayogi
Smt. Supriya Sule
Dr. Shrikant Eknath Shinde
Shri Chandan Chauhan
Shri Balashowry Vallabhaneni

21 members from Lok Sabha; 10 from Rajya Sabha in Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) for 'One Nation One Election'

BJP MP PP Chaudhary appointed as the Chairperson of JPC

No Muslims and no heavyweights of BJP, mostly young generation and new MPs with some exceptions. Opposition MPs are in fact experienced and filled with heavyweights.

Clearly govt wants consensus and get is passed in next session. DGP